The Long Tail and P.O.D.

From Sunday's New York Times:

Yet so far publishers remain wary of the long tail theory, largely because they haven’t figured out how to make money off it.

I've read more than I'd care to admit about the Long Tail, and this quote demonstrates a fairly significant misunderstanding of the concept. I'm not sure if it is the publishers the TImes is referring to that don't understaand, or if it is the Times writer that doesn't understand.

All of the Long Tail success stories are about distributors or virtual retailers. iTunes doesn't develop bands, Netflix doesn't produce films and Amazon doesn't publish books (though I wouldn't be surprised if that is in the near future). It isn't like publishers can "cash in" on the Long Tail. It is really just an opportunity for publishers to understand the changing nature of distribution channels and consumer habits.

As a former (and possibly future) independent publisher, the biggest benefit I've found in the Long Tail is renewed faith that there are plenty of consumers out there who are interested in different ideas.

The other odd thing about the NYT Article is that it launches into a whole discussion about bestselling backlist titles like the Catcher in the Rye or To Kill A Mockingbird. What does this have to do with the Long Tail?  EVERYONE reads these books. They are big hits every year even though they are not new. Publishers can afford to store a ton of physical copies of these books because they make a killing on them every year.

M.J. Rose's discussion on the Long Tail is much more on point. She says:

So what will our future look like if Anderson’s predictions are true and we are facing a Long Tail in publishing?

There very well could be smaller and smaller advances for greater numbers of books with fewer and fewer authors able to make any real money on the sales of those books.

I think that that is what publishers have been doing for years before the idea of the Long Tail was developed. My hope is that good publishers will learn that they don't have to live and die by the hit. I hope publishers will become more selective in their acquisitions, and go out of their way to work with authors to readers who live on the long tail, rather than shoving a bunch of books out the door and hoping one of them becomes a hit.